Talk:2022–2023 mpox outbreak

Discrepancy in count of deaths.

As of today, the article shows 280 total deaths. However WHO only reports a total of 112 (see link below). This is a significant difference. I understand that this is a discrepancy in sources, and we have no control over it - but should we highlight this in the article?

(Thanks User:INgIEroC for regularly updating the statistics)

https://www.who.int/docs/default-source/coronaviruse/situation-reports/20230329_mpox_external-sitrep-19.pdf

Bob (talk) 18:22, 9 April 2023 (UTC)

Suggested move: 2022-2023 global mpox outbreak

The current title only reflects the viewpoint of the global north; it is an outbreak from endemic areas in tropical Africa to other countries where the disease has not been seen before. It is not the only outbreak of mpox which has taken place during 2022 or 2023 - there have been other outbreaks during this period in endemic areas. These areas are have poor healthcare infrastructure and outbreaks are rarely documented.

The WHO is very careful to refer to the outbreak as either "Global" or "Multi-Country" - we should do the same.

Bob (talk) 13:31, 30 May 2023 (UTC)

Is the outbreak over or just the PHEIC?

Inspired by similar discussions related to the COVID-19 pandemic, do sources actually agree that the mpox outbreak, specifically, is over, or at least refer to it in past tense, or is it considered to be continuing at present? The PHEIC ended, yes, but so did the one for COVID-19, yet the COVID-19 pandemic article uses present tense and contains information up to the present. Normally I'd consider the PHEIC ending to be enough in the absence of anything indicating otherwise, but this article does contain case and death counts extending into March 2024. Therefore, we should either more clearly describe the outbreak as over and remove information about after that time as out of scope (perhaps belonging in the general mpox article), or a rename may be warranted, though I'd suggest "Mpox outbreak" over "2022-2024 mpox outbreak". Crossroads ^-talk- 05:26, 29 March 2024 (UTC)

As per the previous Talk section, maybe “Global mpox outbreak”. There have been other outbreaks.

Something like the ECDC report from January 20244 implies the outbreak is ongoing, yes. Bondegezou (talk) 06:39, 29 March 2024 (UTC)

i agree with "global mpox outbreak", Bondegezou. But the European Centre for Disease Prevention and Control (ECDC) weekly communication you cited does not imply the outbreak is ongoing, it just reports figures. It makes absolutely no epidemiological analysis at all. Please look at the epi curve on ECDC/WHO Regional Office for Europe Mpox, Joint Epidemiological overview which does this, and there you will see visually: the outbreak in Europe was over at the end of 2022 with extremely few cases until March 2023. (My reply to Crossroads) Global, WHO data with similar epicurve here. 2023 showed minor outbreaks in the Western Pacific Region (who knows whats happening in Russia...?) and Africa, but no global outbreak like 2022.

The CDC in MMWR May 16, 2024 takes a more differentiated view calling the past outbreak "2022 global mpox outbreak by clade II", which in light of the ongoing increase in clade I and likely future global spread at some point, is smart and makes perfect sense to me.--Wuerzele (talk) 08:49, 17 May 2024 (UTC)

I dont understand why @Gtoffoletto closed the curious discussion below, namely Crossroads s suggestion to rename the page Global mpox on 22 April 2024. He closed it after just 6 days and just 3 editors input. The questionn will pop up again.- I would go along with @Graham Beards and @WhatamIdoing that the global outbreak by clade II is over and there is merely ongoing low level transmission, see the epicurves I cited. I d call the page 2022 global mpox outbreak. 2023 outbreaks werent global, but multi-country. --Wuerzele (talk) 09:22, 17 May 2024 (UTC)

It wasn't I who closed the discussion below. I was just the last to comment. {{u|Gtoffoletto}}  ^talk 18:43, 17 May 2024 (UTC)

The move request was open for 7 days and 4.5 hours, which I believe is a pretty typical timeframe for move requests. Improving the article to provide a little background information about the difference between "outbreak" and "this virus you'd never heard of, that's been circulating forever, still exists" might help. WhatamIdoing (talk) 21:01, 17 May 2024 (UTC)

Wuerzele, thanks for weighing in. The situation here and at COVID-19 pandemic seemed to be similar - a disease that was formerly not present in a population now is, and it got there via a big notable outbreak, but now the numbers are much lower and more stable; but there is (was?) a lack of high quality sources specifically saying the outbreak is over. A case count of zero would make the call easy, but alas that is not the case. At the Covid pandemic article, there was some resistance to the idea of putting the article in past tense, mainly due to the lack of sources specifically saying so (although no one seems to have looked in a while). The idea that a lack of sources affirmatively saying it is ongoing would mean it should be put in past tense was controversial. This is why I was under the impression that for consistency something like the Mpox outbreak was also considered ongoing. All in all I think these articles could definitely use more editors with relevant expertise. Crossroads ^-talk- 01:57, 19 May 2024 (UTC)

Requested move 22 April 2024

The following is a closed discussion of a requested move. Please do not modify it. Subsequent comments should be made in a new section on the talk page. Editors desiring to contest the closing decision should consider a move review after discussing it on the closer's talk page. No further edits should be made to this discussion.

The result of the move request was: no consensus. (closed by non-admin page mover) – Hilst [talk] 23:15, 29 April 2024 (UTC)

---

2022–2023 mpox outbreak → Global mpox outbreak – Please see the previous two brief headings on this page. The global outbreak did not actually end in 2023 (see also [1]), and it is more properly described as the global outbreak to distinguish it from outbreaks in previously endemic regions. There is no need for naming specific years in the title; other disease outbreak/epidemic articles do not do this. Crossroads ^-talk- 18:48, 22 April 2024 (UTC)

Note: WikiProject Disaster management, WikiProject Viruses, WikiProject LGBT studies, WikiProject Medicine/Dermatology task force, and WikiProject Medicine have been notified of this discussion. RodRabelo7 (talk) 05:31, 28 April 2024 (UTC)

• Support – there is no clear evidence/consensus amongst scientists that the outbreak ended in 2023, and there has not been any other global Mpox outbreaks. DaniloDaysOfOurLives (talk) 06:00, 28 April 2024 (UTC)
• Oppose – Other disease articles do have years for example 2009 swine flu pandemic. The outbreak is over. The one or two remaining cases are isolated events. The link says:

As of January 10, 2024, the data on this page are no longer being updated. Low-level transmission of the mpox clade II subtype is occurring in the U.S. There has not been a marked change in weekly or monthly national case counts during the last 6 months.

The current title is accurate. Graham Beards (talk) 07:06, 28 April 2024 (UTC)

@Graham Beards, is that source saying that the outbreak is over in the US, rather than globally? WhatamIdoing (talk) 17:24, 28 April 2024 (UTC)

The World Health Organization lifted the Public health emergency of international concern notice on mpox in May 2023.[2] The 2022–2023 global outbreak of mpox was caused by a strain known as clade IIb. [3] Yes, the source refers to the US but the outbreak is over in Europe.[4] Sporadic cases have occured since the outbreak and no doubt will continue to occur. But unless we can find a source that clearly says the outbreak caused by this clade is ongoing (in gay men), I would be not agree to the page move. Graham Beards (talk) 17:59, 28 April 2024 (UTC)

I wonder whether some people/sources misunderstand statements that low-level transmission is still occurring as meaning the outbreak isn't over. They might think that "when the outbreak is over, nobody has it", when the typical definitions are closer to "when it's over, only the usual number of people have it" (like people getting flu on the off season).

PMID 37717593 ("What happened to the mpox pandemic?") says things like "Multiple countries have had recent pockets of infection, but the numbers of weekly cases have usually been in single digits" and "the small number of new cases recently reported in Barcelona do not represent the start of any new large-scale outbreak". PMID 36708724 ("The end of the mpox pandemic?") from early last year suggests that the global outbreak was ending. PMID 38401555 said "WHO declared the mpox pandemic over on May 11, 2023". PMID 38543691 calls it the "2022-2023 Mpox multi-country outbreak". PMID 38456029 (from this year) says "the 2022-23 Mpox outbreak" and "the 2022-23 global outbreak". This all suggests to me that the outbreak is not (technically) continuing.

(Also, we probably need an article on network immunity.) WhatamIdoing (talk) 18:58, 28 April 2024 (UTC)

Very wise and well sourced. Thank you. Graham Beards (talk) 19:37, 28 April 2024 (UTC)

• Oppose per Graham Beards. {{u|Gtoffoletto}}  ^talk 19:01, 28 April 2024 (UTC)

The discussion above is closed. Please do not modify it. Subsequent comments should be made on the appropriate discussion page. No further edits should be made to this discussion.

Lede needs rewriting

The lede is an accumulation of timeline events and does not adequately, concisely summary the global outbreak, doesnt even mention clade specificity; it needs rewriting- that s why I actually came to this talk page, though I replied to the question of whether the outbreak is over above.. Wuerzele (talk) 09:21, 17 May 2024 (UTC)